Thursday, August 21, 2008

quick tally

All right, I'm trying not to babble too much about South Ossetia, but two weeks in, I still have a bitter taste in my mouth. Let’s go over the list of “interested parties” to figure out where we are:

South Ossetia
Hundreds lost their lives during the Georgian bombardment, as South Ossetia suffered the highest toll in civilian casualties – even if the US media actively tried to sweep that fact under the carpet. From the sounds of it, the prospects of future re-integration of the area back into Georgia appear dim at best - not that Georgia has done much for South Ossetia lately, prior to going in with the guns blazing. Speaking about guns: a simple fact escapes most observers. Since 1992-1994, South Ossetia effectively became a de-militarized zone, with heavy armor and most munitions banned. Georgian claim that they were responding to a provocation from the separatists is a little like saying that Israel can justifiably nuke the Gaza Strip if an IDF soldier gets hit with a stone thrown over the wall.

Georgia
War is no picnic, and it sounds like ordinary Georgians got their share - particularly from the "paramilitary units" that poured in across the border. The area is a lot like Iraq - many ethnic tribes live close together within borders drawn by external powers. People are mostly poor, and mostly armed. Remove the centralized control, and the sh#t hits the fan.

Saakashvili
Between his claims of ethnic cleansing and an imminent attack on Tbilisi, it's amazing how the man has not been impeached yet. Oh wait, at least he didn't claim that South Ossetia had WMDs...

McCain
Way to expose yourself as a total douchebag. "We are all Georgians"? What?? When Serbia got busy in Kosovo, we did not become Serbians - far from it. "In the 21st century nations don't invade other nations..." Uhhh! After hearing that, I wanted to clean out my ears. With kerosene. Set ablaze.

US
Yikes. Let's ignore, for a moment, the fact that the US has been exposed as having no geopolitical leverage whatsoever. Unfortunately, what's also becoming clear is that the "We'll Fight For Democracy Anywhere There's Oil" doctrine is beginning to backfire. The signing of the missile defense treaty with Poland, while completely glossed over by US media, has all the trademarks of a little incident in Cuba a few dozen years back. Well, for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction - already, Syria is reaching out to Russia to buff up its missile defenses.

Russia
Technically, the only winner here - but, then again, the military success was never in doubt. The army did lose some planes and soldiers, which it will undoubtedly use as an excuse to spend more on weapon modernization. Action/reaction, again. Did Russia piss off/scare its neighbors? Sure, that was the idea. Watch Ukraine rumble and then quiet down after a quick suggestion from Medvedev: "Want to be next?"

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